Este estudio examina la influencia de las entradas de inversión extranjera directa (IED) en el sector agrícola de Turquía durante el período comprendido entre 1970 y 2023. Mediante técnicas econométricas avanzadas, incluida la prueba de raíz unitaria de Dickey-Fuller aumentada (ADF), la prueba de raíz unitaria de Phillips-Perron (PP), la prueba de cointegración de retardo distribuido autorregresivo (ARDL) y la prueba de causalidad de Granger, esta investigación tiene como objetivo proporcionar una comprensión integral de la dinámica a largo y corto plazo entre la IED y el crecimiento agrícola del país. Los hallazgos indican que la IED desempeña un papel crucial en la mejora del sector agrícola de Turquía, particularmente en el largo plazo. Los resultados sugieren que la inversión extranjera contribuye significativamente al crecimiento agrícola al mejorar la productividad, modernizar la infraestructura y facilitar la transferencia de tecnología. Sin embargo, en el corto plazo se encontró que el impacto de la IED era estadísticamente no significativo. Esto sugiere que los beneficios de la IED tardan en materializarse, en gran medida debido a los desafíos estructurales, las demoras en la implementación de políticas y el tiempo que se requiere para que las inversiones se traduzcan en mejoras sectoriales tangibles. Además, la prueba de causalidad de Granger destaca una relación bidireccional entre la IED y la expansión agrícola. Si bien las entradas de IED estimulan el desarrollo agrícola al proporcionar capital y avances tecnológicos, un sector agrícola en crecimiento –a su vez– atrae a más inversores extranjeros que buscan oportunidades rentables. Este refuerzo mutuo subraya la importancia estratégica de fomentar un entorno estable y favorable a los inversores para maximizar los beneficios de la IED. Dado el papel cada vez mayor de Turquía en los mercados agrícolas regionales y mundiales, sostener las entradas de IED podría servir como una herramienta poderosa para el desarrollo agrícola y económico general. Por tanto, los responsables de las políticas deberían centrarse en mejorar la seguridad de la inversión, reducir los obstáculos burocráticos e implementar reformas específicas para garantizar que la inversión extranjera contribuya efectivamente a la seguridad alimentaria, el empleo rural y la resiliencia a largo plazo del sector.

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